FACT CHECK: Actual recycling rates are lower than what Fost Plus claims

In Belgium, plastic bottles and flasks, metal cans and drinks cartons are collected via the blue bag. Other packaging must go with the residual waste. The blue bag system is well established. There is a price incentive for citizens to use the blue bag and, because collection is done at home, it is attractive and easy for citizens to participate.

Fost Plus is responsible for the blue bag. On behalf of supermarkets and beverage producers, this organisation organises the collection and recycling of packaging. In May 2018, Fost Plus published its recycling figures for packaging placed on the market. In this fact check, Recycling Netwerk takes a close look at the figures. The figures appear to be higher than what is actually recycled.

Recycling figures according to Fost Plus

According to the Fost Plus annual report (for 2017), 89.1% of all packaging is recycled. The recycling calculation is as follows. In Belgium, the collected weight is counted as recycled. Companies that place products on the market report their total weight to Fost Plus. Fost Plus collects this packaging via the blue bag and determines the weight of the various collected packagings. This is then compared with the share reported to Fost Plus.

This approach leads to several errors in reporting. Each of these errors causes the figures to be higher than is realistic. The following factors play a role:

About 5 to 10% of the packaging in the blue bag is purchased in other countries (mainly the Netherlands and France). These packagings are added to the recycling figures (the numerator of the fraction) but are missing from the figures for packaging placed on the market (the denominator of the fraction). Due to price differences between countries, the opposite effect is much smaller.

This concerns self-reporting by the companies that put the packaging on the market. This leads to two problems.

First, there is the issue of free riders: companies that place packaging on the market in Belgium but do not report to Fost Plus. OVAM's deposit study estimates this at around 8%. The packaging of these companies does end up in the blue bag (the numerator of the fraction) and therefore artificially inflates the recycling figures.  Secondly, self-reporting is not watertight. There may be under-reporting, which would again lead to artificially high recycling figures. It is not clear how large this effect is.

Finally, the sorting and determination of the share of packaging waste is also not perfect. After sorting, there will be packaging in the stream of another material, or of the correct material but not a bottle or flask, or there will still be attached dirt and moisture. The effect of this differs per waste stream.

Table 1 below shows the Fost Plus recycling figures for 2017. We discuss in turn the recycling figures for glass, metals (with a focus on cans), drinks cartons and plastic bottles.

Table 1: Belgian recycling figures as reported by Fost Plus (Fost Plus. Annual Report 2017)

1. Glass

According to Fost Plus, glass recycling is estimated at 114.5% (Table 1). That is an error of at least 14.5 percentage points and is likely to be significantly more. Assuming there is no fraud, this indicates that the combined share of free riders, cross-border purchases and sorting inaccuracies is very high.

From the figures in Fost Plus's 2017 annual report, it follows that its members placed 171,099 tonnes of glass packaging on the market in Flanders and 195,928 tonnes were recycled (1).

In Flanders, 2.11 kg of glass packaging per inhabitant per year ends up in household residual waste (which is not recycled). This is shown by a sorting analysis of household waste carried out by OVAM in 2013 and 2014 (2). With a population of 6,516,011, this amounts to a total of 13,749 tonnes of glass. That is 8.0% of the glass placed on the market in 2017, which is therefore already not recycled.

The recent litter measurement commissioned by Limburg.net shows that 13.96% of the weight of litter consists of glass packaging (3). Applying that percentage to the total amount of litter in 2015 of 27,427 tonnes, this amounts to approximately 3,829 tonnes of glass in litter (4) (5). Part of this consists of cross-border purchases (5-10%) and packaging from free riders (8%). Corrected, there are 3,140 to 3,331 tonnes of packaging glass in litter. That is 1.8% to 1.9% of what was placed on the Flemish market in 2017 by Fost Plus members. This part of the glass is also not recycled.

Added to the 8% glass in residual waste, there is then 9.8 to 9.9% glass that is not selectively collected. Therefore, a maximum of 9

In Belgium, plastic bottles and flasks, metal cans and drinks cartons are collected via the blue bag. Other packaging must go with the residual waste. The blue bag system is well established. There is a price incentive for citizens to use the blue bag and, because collection is done at home, it is attractive and easy for citizens to participate.

Fost Plus is responsible for the blue bag. On behalf of supermarkets and beverage producers, this organisation organises the collection and recycling of packaging. In May 2018, Fost Plus published its recycling figures for packaging placed on the market. In this fact check, Recycling Netwerk takes a close look at the figures. The figures appear to be higher than what is actually recycled.

Recycling figures according to Fost Plus

According to the Fost Plus annual report (for 2017), 89.1% of all packaging is recycled. The recycling calculation is as follows. In Belgium, the collected weight is counted as recycled. Companies that place products on the market report their total weight to Fost Plus. Fost Plus collects this packaging via the blue bag and determines the weight of the various collected packagings. This is then compared with the share reported to Fost Plus.

This approach leads to several errors in reporting. Each of these errors causes the figures to be higher than is realistic. The following factors play a role:

About 5 to 10% of the packaging in the blue bag is purchased in other countries (mainly the Netherlands and France). These packagings are added to the recycling figures (the numerator of the fraction) but are missing from the figures for packaging placed on the market (the denominator of the fraction). Due to price differences between countries, the opposite effect is much smaller.

This concerns self-reporting by the companies that put the packaging on the market. This leads to two problems. First, there is the issue of free riders: companies that place packaging on the market in Belgium but do not report to Fost Plus. The deposit study by OVAM estimates this at around 8%. The packaging of these companies does end up in the blue bag (the numerator of the fraction) and therefore artificially inflates the recycling figures. Secondly, self-reporting is not watertight. There may be under-reporting, which would again lead to artificially high recycling figures. It is not clear how large this effect is.

Finally, the sorting and determination of the share of packaging waste is also not perfect. After sorting, there will be packaging in the stream of another material, or of the correct material but not a bottle or flask, or there will still be attached dirt and moisture. The effect of this differs per waste stream.

Table 1 below shows the Fost Plus recycling figures for 2017. We discuss in turn the recycling figures for glass, metals (with a focus on cans), drinks cartons and plastic bottles.

Table 1: Belgian recycling figures as reported by Fost Plus (Fost Plus. Annual Report 2017)

1. Glass

According to Fost Plus, glass recycling is estimated at 114.5% (Table 1). That is an error of at least 14.5 percentage points and is likely to be significantly more. Assuming there is no fraud, this indicates that the combined share of free riders, cross-border purchases and sorting inaccuracies is very high.

From the figures in Fost Plus's 2017 annual report, it follows that its members in Flanders placed 171,099 tonnes of glass packaging on the market and 195,928 tonnes were recycled (1).

In Flanders, 2.11 kg of glass packaging per inhabitant per year ends up in household residual waste (which is not recycled). This is shown by a sorting analysis of household waste carried out by OVAM in 2013 and 2014 (2). With a population of 6,516,011, this amounts to a total of 13,749 tonnes of glass. That is 8.0% of the glass placed on the market in 2017, which is therefore already not recycled.

The recent litter measurement commissioned by Limburg.net shows that 13.96% of the weight of litter consists of glass packaging (3). Applying that percentage to the total amount of litter in 2015 of 27,427 tonnes, this amounts to approximately 3,829 tonnes of glass in litter (4) (5). Part of this consists of cross-border purchases (5-10%) and packaging from free riders (8%). Corrected, there are 3,140 to 3,331 tonnes of packaging glass in litter. That is 1.8% to 1.9% of what was placed on the Flemish market in 2017 by Fost Plus members. This part of the glass is also not recycled.

Added to the 8% glass in residual waste, there is then 9.8 to 9.9% glass that is not selectively collected. Therefore, a maximum of 90.1 to 90.2% of packaging glass can be recycled. The 114.5% reported by Fost Plus is therefore at least 24.3 percentage points too high. There is also glass in industrial residual waste and in uncollected litter, meaning that actual recycling rates are likely to be even lower.

Specifically for glass, it should also be noted that (broken) glass products such as vases, drinking glasses or candle holders can also end up in glass packaging waste. Furthermore, some reusable bottles may be counted in the recycling figures for one-way glass packaging. Consequently, the above calculation probably still overestimates the actual recycling of glass.

Furthermore, the Belgian glass packaging market is increasingly shifting towards one-way beverage packaging. The quantity of reusable bottles has been falling for years consecutively (see Chart 1 below). This information cannot be found in Fost Plus's annual report, but is in the activity report of the Interregional Packaging Commission (6).

Chart 1: Evolution of reusable beverage packaging

According to Article 3, §1, 2º of the Cooperation Agreement established in 1996, it must be guaranteed that: “the share of reusable packaging for the same goods placed on the market, does not decrease compared to the previous year.” (7) This passage was reaffirmed in the 2008 Cooperation Agreement between the regions and applies to the business community (8).

The decline of reusable packaging in a market that is actually growing means that a shift from reusable packaging towards disposable packaging is taking place. This violates the Cooperation Agreement, which is the basis for Fost Plus's accreditation.

2. Metal

The recycling of metal packaging such as beverage cans and food cans is estimated by Fost Plus at 102.6%. However, according to OVAM's deposit study, only 51% of cans are collected via the blue bag (9). Indeed, of the 19,465 tonnes of cans (aluminium plus steel), only 9,999 tonnes are selectively collected (see also Table 2 below). High recycling figures are obtained because metals from the bottom ash of waste incinerators are added to packaging recycling figures.

Table 2: Impact analysis of introducing deposits on one-way beverage packaging

In this process, metal from non-packaging recovered from bottom ash is also added to packaging recycling figures. Thus, for example, the metal of a clothes hanger contributes to the recycled can score. This creates an arbitrary and excessively high recycling figure, again because the numerator of the fraction increases without the denominator being adjusted.

Furthermore, a Dutch study on the costs and effects of deposits shows that about 38% of aluminium is lost when it ends up in an incinerator (10). However, the Netherlands has more modern waste incineration plants with more modern aluminium separation installations. Losses in Flanders are expected to be higher.

3. Drinks cartons

Fost Plus estimates drinks carton recycling at 91.0%. This is 8.4% lower than in 2016. This sharp decline is not explained in Fost Plus's annual report.

According to OVAM's sorting analysis mentioned earlier, 1.45 kg of drinks cartons per inhabitant ends up in residual waste, which is not recycled (11). Unlike metals, drinks cartons cannot be recovered from waste incinerator bottom ash. For the whole of Flanders, this represents 9,448 tonnes of drinks cartons lost via residual waste.

According to the Fost Plus annual report, 17,427 tonnes are placed on the market in Belgium. Extrapolated to Flanders, this concerns 10,029 tonnes.

Leaving aside the fact that some drinks cartons end up in litter, public litter bins and corporate residual waste bins, this means (10,029-9,448)/10,029 = 5.8% recycling.

This figure is without doubt a massive understatement of the actual recycling rate. A possible explanation is that drinks cartons have a much higher rate of contamination than other packaging. This makes the packaging in both residual waste and the blue bag heavier. That could also explain why the two figures are so far apart.

In Flanders, the contamination rate of drinks cartons has not been established, but analyses are available in the Netherlands. According to a recent analysis by Eureco, drinks cartons make up 2.6% of Dutch residual waste. More than half of that (1.5%, or relatively 57.7%) consists of moisture and dirt (12). If, based on the Dutch data, we deduct the share of moisture and dirt from the drinks cartons in Flemish residual waste, we conclude that 9,448*(1-0.577) = 3,997 tonnes of beverage packaging are not recycled. We further assume that 5-10% of this originates from abroad and 8% from so-called free riders. Correcting for this, it appears that 3,277 tonnes to 3,477 tonnes of the drinks cartons placed on the market by Fost Plus members are not recycled.

Limburg.net's recent measurement shows that 0.24% of the weight of litter consists of drinks cartons (13). Applying that percentage to the total amount of litter in 2015 of 27,427 tonnes, this amounts to approximately 23 to 24 tonnes of drinks cartons in litter (14) (15). Corrected for cross-border purchases, free riders, and moisture and dirt, that is 0.2% of what was placed on the Flemish market in 2017 by Fost Plus members.

Calculations show that approximately 3,300 to 3,501 tonnes of drinks cartons are not selectively collected and are therefore not recycled. It follows that a maximum of 64.4 to 66.4% of drinks cartons are collected and recycled via the blue bag.

If correction is also made for the share of drinks cartons in industrial residual waste bins, the recycling rate will be lower.